Niger’s ousted President Mohamed Bazoum is certainly not having the best of time in the hands of his captors. The threat to his life and family has been in the news since his ouster and detention by the military junta.
The latest is the threat of facing prosecution for alleged “high treason”. This development is stemming from his communication with foreign leaders and international organizations. The coup plotters seem to consider this as evidence of treason.
As reported by Reuters, the junta’s spokesperson, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, conveyed on state TV that the military authorities have amassed the necessary evidence to hold Bazoum accountable for high treason and endangering Niger’s internal and external security.
Some Context: The political turmoil in Niger escalated following the recent coup d’état that saw President Bazoum removed from power by the presidential guard.
In response, West African leaders escalated their condemnation of the coup leaders and authorized the deployment of a regional standby force aimed at restoring democracy in the country.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) enacted sanctions and set a deadline for the military junta to step down or risk potential military intervention.
Although the initial deadline passed without a shift in the political landscape, there seems to be a glimpse of diplomatic potential. General Abdourahmane Tchiani, leader of the Niger Junta, conveyed his willingness to engage in dialogue during a meeting with Nigeria’s intervention team.
The team included Islamic scholars led by Bala Lau, the national chairman of Jamatul Izalatu Bida Waikamatu Sunnah. The new Prime Minister of Niger Republic, Ali Zeine, expressed hope that talks with ECOWAS could unfold in the coming days, suggesting a possibility of a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing crisis.
How real is this threat from the Niger junta? The Niger junta’s announcement that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum will face charges of high treason and security undermining marks a significant turn of events. However, this might be viewed as a strategic manoeuvre to strengthen the junta’s negotiating position.
By putting forth serious charges against the former leader, the junta could be attempting to establish a firm stance and leverage its position in potential diplomatic talks. This tactic could signal their determination to achieve their objectives and secure favourable terms in negotiations with both internal and external actors.
It’s plausible that the junta is using the threat of prosecution to gain concessions from other stakeholders. By portraying Bazoum’s actions as severe offenses (if any), the junta could be seeking to extract compromises or concessions from ECOWAS and other international actors, thereby shaping the direction of negotiations more in their favour.
This calculated move could be an attempt to project strength and demonstrate that the junta is not easily swayed by pressure, potentially leading to a more balanced negotiation process.
Possible negative fallout from the threat: Notwithstanding whatever might be the strategic reason for this threat, it’s important to also note that while this approach might be an attempt to bolster their position, it also comes with its own risks.
Such strong rhetoric could further isolate the junta on the international stage, potentially leading to increased pressure and limited support from regional and global partners.
Striking the right balance between assertiveness and cooperation will be crucial for the junta as it navigates the complex dynamics of negotiations and seeks a resolution to the ongoing crisis in Niger.
What happens next?: Predicting the trajectory of this delicate situation remains uncertain, as tensions between the junta and ECOWAS persist. The international community is closely observing these developments, with hopes pinned on diplomatic efforts.
Nevertheless, preparedness for potential intervention remains on the table. The outcome of these diplomatic discussions could define Niger’s path forward and shape the region’s response to the crisis.
