TAIWAN TENSION: Should the United States of America chose to intervene to defend the Island of Taiwan in any Chinese inversion, it will be a very disastrous war and costly experience for the US military. However, China will be bitten back, suffer more loses and will eventually lose the war. These were the findings of a US based think tank’s war games.

Basic Facts

• A United States think tank have understudied possible outcomes in a war between the US military and China over Taiwan.
• This study was undertaken in various scenarios of war games between the two superpowers, and there are indications that US and Taiwan will emerge victorious but it will be a disastrous outcome for all the militaries involved.
• The United States in particular is said to lose about 900 warplanes, amounting to half of its current military air fleet.

What We Know

The China-Taiwan tension has reached a fever peach in the recent time following the visit of the US House Speaker – Nancy Pelosi to the Island, which drew the ire of China when she became the first US speaker to visit in 25 years at a time when Washington-Beijing relations have been especially tense.

The reaction of the Chinese People Liberation Army (PLA) following Pelosi`s visit was swift and dare. This has further raised the possibility of military conflict between the US and China in no distant time.

Such a conflict will be as a result of China`s decision to invade the island nation, which it claims as a breakaway region of China.

In such a brazen attempt by the PLA, experts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, has been conducting war games to envision how such a conflict would play out amongst the parties.

The conclusion of the expert analysis is that such a war will be too disastrous for both the Chinese and US militaries, as well for the Taiwanese.

The United States military in particular is estimate to suffer the loss of as much as 900 war planes in the first 4 weeks of the war. This includes fighter jets and attack aircraft and according to The Times of London represents half of the US Air Force and Navy’s combat planes.

Nevertheless, the Chinese military will even suffer heavier damages in the conflict, and eventually, the US and Taiwan may still prevail over the Peoples Liberation Army of China in such a daring invasion, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. China is estimated to loose more than 100 warships.

Notable Quotes

A Senior Adviser at the Washington based think tank – Mark Cancian, was quoted by Insider, saying “The good news is that at the end of all the iterations so far, there is an autonomous Taiwan,”

Speaking further, he said, “The United States and Taiwan are generally successful in keeping the island out of Chinese occupation, but the price of that is very high – losses of hundreds of aircraft, aircraft carriers, and terrible devastation to the Taiwanese economy and also to the Chinese navy and air force.”

“I would say in most scenarios, the Chinese fleet suffers a lot more because it’s very exposed,” he said.

Takeaway

The likelihood of a Chinese invasion of the Island of Taiwan is estimated to happen sometime in 2026, according to US intelligence sources, who predict that the Chinese military may have the capabilities to match or even outpace the Us military assets in the region.

The war games by the Center for Strategic and International Studies is based on already known military capabilities of both the United States and the Chinese Military, including weapon systems and capabilities that may not be already deployed at the moment, but expected to be deployed and fully operational by 2026.

The Washington based think tank is said to have run the war game about 18 times out 22 times projection. They are billed to release the final result of the war games in December 2022 after the 22nd episode.

Catch-up

Clariform reported on Sunday that a new US congressional delegation led by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey has arrived in Taipei on an unannounced two-day visit, following a major military response from the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of China, after US Speaker Pelosi`s visit.

This is the second US congressional delegation to Taiwan this month, August.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drew the ire of China when she became the first US speaker to visit in 25 years at a time when Washington-Beijing relations have been especially tense.

In a statement, the spokesperson for Markey said:

“The new five-member delegation is visiting the self-governing island in an effort to reaffirm the United States’ support for Taiwan” and will encourage stability and peace across the Taiwan.”

The delegation includes Democratic Reps. John Garamendi, Alan Lowenthal and Don Beyer, and Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, the statement added.