For long some military analysts have feared the lunch of nukes by President Putin in Ukraine, especially following his faltering military campaign in an avoidable war he personally choose to wedge against all sense of reason.
An expert in Moscow and an investigative journalist, Christo Grozev have suggested that senior military officers are unlikely to obey any order for the lunch of nukes given by President Putin.
He says that this stand is predicated on their view that Putin`s days in power are very limited, and may likely not last another three months in the Kremlin. They say that his grip on power is fast waning.
Experts in Russian affairs and security are almost sure that the world is nearing a post Putin Russia, and that some top officials in the security circle are seeking ways to safely run away from the country with their families.
These senior personnel in the top echelon of Russian security establishments such as the FSB security agency and the GRU military intelligence organization are said to be preparing for life after Putin.
Responding to questions about the figure about the mounting Russian casualties in Ukraine, the Moscow expert said that the truth about the looses is well known to the ‘FSB elite’, and that the relatives of this Russian soldiers ‘do not stop asking questions’ about their dead or missing family members.
KEY FACTS
- Putin`s military campaign in Ukraine has been at the best very woeful and is viewed by top Russian security officials as already a lost war.
- They think that the chance of turning the tide in favour of Russia would only brightened if President Putin chooses the path of full mobilization of the Russian military.
- Christo however, thinks that the idea of full mobilization in Russia for the purpose of escalating the war will cause ‘social explosion’ in Russia.
- He said that following the almost loss of Putin`s war that some hardliners who align with him may push for the use of nuclear weapon to win the war for Russia. However, there are those among the Russian elites around Putin who thinks “enough is enough.”
- He thinks that in the event that if any one among the top security hierarchy does not comply with any order from Putin to lunch nuclear weapon, it will be a ‘signal of insubordination’ and this development could end up in the “death of Putin”.
NOTABLE QUOTES
According to Metro, Christo Grozev who spoke with Radio Liberty said:
“‘I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost,”
He says that any order from Putin to lunch nuclear weapon may likely be refused by some senior military officers.
“And this refusal will be the trigger, most likely, a coup d’état, because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly,’
‘If Putin decides to give an order to use nuclear weapons, he must be sure that everyone along the chain will carry out this order.’
‘So until he is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order,’ Christo added.
TAKEAWAY
Some security officials in the FSB and GRU are already working out terms and weighing conditions for a post-Putin Russia, according to Bellingcat’s Christo.
Experts in Russian affairs are of the view that senior officials in the Russian security circle believe that Putin`s war in Ukraine is already lost, and that Ukraine may likely emerge victorious.
These senior security officials are now so fearful of what the future holds for them in Russia. As a result, they are looking for opportunity to elope from Russia with their families.
From available information an order for a nuclear strike by Russia, will be approved by the Russian Defense minister and the chief of Defense Staff. They would both need to agree to such an order for lunch of nukes.
