The victory of Atiku Abubakar was a long forgone conclusion, and the event of Saturday night was only but a coronation ceremony of sort. His victory happened long before the 28th of May when the People`s Democratic Party Delegates gathered in Abuja to perform the usual US dollar dominated “share the money” ritual. It was simply a repeat of the 2019 exercise in Port Harcourt.
If there was any surprise on the said night of PDP`s primary it was the near or in fact very close challenge from the River State governor, Barr Nyesom Ezenwo Wike, whose 237 votes was the closest to Atiku`s 371 votes. That was in my opinion the biggest surprise of the night; if at all, any other thing that happened in the event of the PDP primaries could be considered a surprise.
In the final count, a hundred delegates separated the two party chieftains and cemented Atiku`s victory, indicating nothing but a clear testament of his superior financial muscles over that of Governor Ezenwo Wike. Why should the fact that Atiku wielded a grander and overwhelming financial clout astonish anyone anyway? We know their antecedence, where they came from and how they arrived. We know it all.
These are men who made their fortunes largely from politics and have each been players in the political arena, both statewide and at the national level. They have both being governors, but Abubakar Atiku has had an edge. Atiku has also been a two time Vice President and a powerful one at that too. A Vice that lorded it over in virtually everything for at least the first term of his tenure as Vice President Olusegun Obasanjo.
He has also ensured for himself a commercial lifeline in business, which spans across maritime and oil & gas, as much as we know. I say so because there could be many more commercial interest than reported. Nigerian politicians and power brokers have their ways and their means in masking their wealth and business interests from scorching eyes of the public.
Consequentially, Atiku has been in the business of amassing wealth far long enough, through the instrumentality of politics and the Nigerian power game that undoubtable favours a Northern Muslim like Alhaji Abubakar Atiku over a Southern Christian like Nyesom Wike.
Therefore, his victory was sure, certain and fated to happen. The advantage that Atiku holds over Wike is hence crystal clear. So also was his chances even before the first vote was casted on Saturday night. The 100 delegates that made the difference in political arithmetic and mathematical figures, in Nigerian contest would amount to thousands of United States Dollars in financial terms and Atiku`s pocket was deeper, more rooted and expansive.
With above comments out of the way, the ground is set for my actual focus on today`s column piece, which is what I have captioned – The best running mate Atiku Abubakar will never have in the 2023 presidential election. This is essentially about the former governor of Anambra State – Mr. Peter Obi.
Peter Obi`s resignation from the People`s Democratic Party was no doubt the greatest puzzle that is yet to be solved. There are certainly many permutations in the build up to the presidential election. In addition, nothing is denied of the many sheds of opinions and political analysis that have trailed his resignation from the party, where he was no doubt a major player, at least in principle. This does not by any inkling of imagine mean Obi had any chance of winning the PDP ticket.
However, in all of these viewpoints, there has been more confusion in the mix. Commentators have at best muddied the intellectual space and beclouded the issues even the more. As you read the reviews and opinions of various writers, it becomes rather more obscure why the former governor choose the path he did. Not even Peter Obi`s own explanations in his resignation letter could be relied on as the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Mr. Obi have since joined the Labour Party, a political platform many speakers and writers most of who in their own right qualifies as political pundits have described in many demeaning expressions. I will not however, be looking at the chances of Obi in his chosen Labour Party, at least not in this article. That will be meat for another day, and it will be done good justice, when I do write on it.
But who is the man Peter Obi and how does he stack in electoral value? The chances of the former governor of succeeding the leprous, murderous and corrupt regime of President Muhammadu Buhari depends on many variables, none of which he has any control over. However, none of this has any direct connection to his likability or electability in true sense of it.
I try to use the word – electability cautiously because I am relating it to the Nigerian environment, which is undoubtedly a dysfunctional society by all account. Electability does not only depends on the likeability of a candidate. It is strongly on many other variables, which can at best be referred to collectively as the “Nigerian factor”.
The same Nigerian factor which “elected” the current lifeless and moribund Muhammadu Buhari to rule over the destiny of more than 200 million Nigerian, amongst which are men and women of high timber and caliber. The same “Nigerian factor”, which have held Nigeria in bondage and have condemned the entire country to be led by the worst of her citizen, rather than the best of them.
In a normal society a character like Muhammadu Buhari have no place in power in a country projected to inhabit more than 350 Million population of human beans, making it the 3rd world most populated country by 2050 according to United Nations estimation. Nevertheless, alas! Buhari became president twice and still calls the shot on who takes over from his inept, clueless and most corrupt regime, filled with unpatriotic sycophants.
On the other hand, Mr. Obi`s credentials and electoral value has never been called to question since his days as the governor on Anambra State. There is hardly anyone in the country who does not agree to the suitability of the former governor to take over the reins of power and provide Nigeria with knowledgeable and focus driven political leadership the country so desperately needs at the moment.
Even his fellow contestants in the PDP knows this and have openly admitted it. None of these glowing comments about Peter Obi comes out more eloquently than the comments of the outspoken former governor of Ekiti State, Mr. Peter Ayodele Fayose. On this presidential ambition of Peter Obi, and on the possibility of Igbo president and Igbo electoral value generally, Mr. Fayose said the following:
“I love Igbos but I have to tell them the truth because I love them. It is now a law to transmit votes electronically, that means rigging of elections has been reduced drastically.
“Igbos are only tribe that have 99% of voters in the South East and second highest voters in other regions in Nigeria.
“In the South West, after Yoruba votes, Igbo votes come second. Lagos has the highest number of voters in Nigeria and Igbos are competing with Yorubas in voting power in Lagos.”
“In the South South, we have indigenous Igbos in the South South and all the major cities in the South-South are occupied by Igbos. Go to Port Harcourt you will understand what I mean.
“In the North Central, go to Jos, and all the state capital in the North Central, Igbos are the second largest population after the indigenous people.
“In the North West, go to Kano and Kaduna and you will know that Igbos are the second largest population after indigenous people.”
In the North East, go to Maidugri and all the state capitals, Igbos are the second largest tribe after the indigenous people.
Go to federal capital territory Abuja, Igbos are the largest population in Abuja today.
If Igbos truly want to determine who will rule this country today, they will, but they only sit back and lament without any action.”
The most protuberant of his comment was when he said – “Peter Obi is the most qualified candidate to rule this country”. When Peter Fayose made these comments, he was not only making a statement of fact. He was also speaking for many other PDP members and was indeed speaking in agreement with majority of Nigerians of voting age, who all positioned to vote in the 2023 elections.
Peter Obi is a known quality, no doubt. In some political calculations he may be lacking in the geographical advantage that counts the most in the presidential or any national election in Nigeria. A country whose citizens have suffered the unfortunate reality of balance of power in the reality of our political chase.
This notwithstanding, what Peter Obi has in sufficiency is what the man who has emerged the PDP flagbearer, Alhaji Atiku lacks – the natural likability and credibility that smoothens the electoral path.
However, there is no doubt that Atiku has the geographical advantage that swings the electoral pendulum and decides the balance of power in Nigeria – he is a Northern Muslim. He also has the financial muscle to buy the votes, the tugs, the boot leakers and the sycophants in their numbers. Notwithstanding, should the new 2022 electoral hold swear and the innovations it brings to the electoral process stands and efficiently guarantees free, fair and credible election, then the former Vice President may soon, and in fact very soon realise what he lost in the electoral value that Mr. Peter Obi brings to the table.
Written by Williams Ukonu Esq, lawyer and rights advocate. He is a Clariform columnist and a regular commentator on national issues. He tweets @WilliamsUkonu and can be reached at wukonu@swiftsolicitor.com.
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