The INEC deadline for the submission of the names of the presidential candidates and their running mates by the political parties end in less than 48 hours. To beat this deadline all the parties are working round the clock to ensure they put the best foot forward as the battle for the February election rages on even before the real whistle is blown.
The Ruling All Progressive Party, APC is fighting the devils of Muslim-Muslim ticket after electing a Muslim flag bearer from the South West. While there are many voices continuously rising against the idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, the responses from the APC big weights seem to suggest that this might be the way the party is heading to.
For the country`s biggest opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, there is far less a problem in the issue of fielding a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The lines has fallen in the right places for the party as they already have a strong Northern Muslim as their flag bearer.
This is obviously an advantage for the PDP because with Alhaji Atiku Abubaka, this takes care of the interest of the Muslim North who always seek to have their own in power.
What the PDP now faces is the problem choosing the best Christian running mate from the South to balance the political equation. In their favour.
However, this choice does not seem to be an easy one still, as among the available options there is obviously none amongst them who seems outstanding enough to outweigh and counterbalance the threat that is coming from the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, who hails from the South.
Peter Obi as the LP flag bearer emerged as the greatest challenge to both the APC and the PDP in their political calculations in the South. These two parties with their forces and incumbency advantage put together does not match the popularity of Peter Obi candidacy, especially in the South.
The APC draws a little strength from the South West, but that is where it ends in the South. On the other hand, the PDP surely has some following in North currently and going into the election this can only get bigger, largely because it has a Northern Muslim as the candidate for the presidential election.
Currently, it is not exactly clear what support the APC with Senator Bola Tinubu, a Southern Muslim as its flag bearer will have going into the election.
Some APC party chieftains are already decamping to PDP and this is likely to continue as the issue of “Northern interest” is further discussed and agreed by the political actors in the North.
However, the issues about the “Northern interest” and popularity of candidates, could create a solid political marriage with the capacity to dislodge the PDP and APC in both the North and South in the February 2023 election.
This is a card that can be played by Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party and Mr Rabiu Kwankwaso, the candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP. It is however, not clear how these actors can bring this about, even though they seem to be working out the terms of a possible merger.
What Obi brings to the table in the presidential election is the type of popularity that engineers a political revolution, and the signs are already too obvious.
However, the North is a kernel too difficult to crack even for Peter going into the election only on the strength of his credibility.
This is especially because of the level of illiteracy and backwardness in the region, which the Northern leaders have intentional kept so in other to exploit it for their political advantage.
Owing to this obvious fault line in the region, the political actors conveniently fan the embers of religion and tribal sentiments to keep their voters in line for a Northern candidate of their choice.
This is exactly where Kwankwaso`s NNPP comes into play. Kwankwaso is a Northern Muslim with capacity for extensive grass root mobilization. Therefore, a collaboration by the two former governors, who have drawn their small parties into the headlines since Mr. Obi became the Labour Party candidate will further create the equation that can upstage the two biggest parties.
By standing alone, they will be working at cross purposes and stands the risk of been inconsequential in the presidential run, especially if the two biggest parties are able to get their acts right and on time. Together, they present a very fierce challenge, rather than just appearing like the spoiler in the pack.
Peter Obi for instances has created a very large following nationwide. His popularity is not just a South Eastern affair, but has spiraled across many starters of the society and age brackets.
He is a song sang by the Nigerian youths today. The message he brings is welcome by many and is ranging like a bush fire, just like the 2020 EndSARS protest.
In fact Obi`s emergence could be likened to as EndSARS 2.0. This is exactly why he is closely watched by both the ruling APC and the PDP, where he moved away from.
Following his rising popularity, Peter Obi is now a constant factor on the drawing board of these two big parties, and certainly a most talked about candidate in their situation rooms.
The highly energetic youth population of this country exemplified what a political revolution could be when they took over many parts of the country protesting against police handedness and by extension the failure of governance in Nigeria.
Their agitation did not only spread across the social media like Twitter and Instagram and Facebook. They were also on the street of major cities across the country.
This same enthusiasm is already burning across the country, both on the social media space and on the various INEC PVC centers, where these youths are mobilizing for CVR and voters card.
Therefore, while it can be conceded that the 2020 EndSARS revolution fizzled out after a short while, it should also be remember how the oppressiveness of the government spilled the blood of these youths to achieve that.
Also, the leaderless nature of the protest, which rolled away the gains recorded by this youth, further contributed to this stillborn outcome. However, as it is at the moment, this disadvantage of defined leadership is now dispensed with by the advantage of a recognized and face and the credibility in Mr Peter Obi.
The combination of the mobility of this youths and the popularity of the message and aura Obi carries with him will no doubt make a statement on February 25 2023.
With this obvious strength Peter Obi`s campaign brings to the table, joining forces with a personality like Mr Rabiu Kwankwaso can only brighten the horizon for both candidates. With Obi as the presidential candidate and Kwankwaso as his running mate, 2023 will be locked and delivered for the true progressive in Nigeria.
