The southeast region of Nigeria has emerged as a fascinating crucible of political intrigues and ambitions, even though the interest of the region continues to struggle at the national level. Imo state in particular is again approaching the season of the next electoral cycle, which will determine who leads the state for another four years.
The present governor Hope Uzodinma wants another four-year term. This is in the culture of politicians. They are like the proverbial Oliver Twist. They always want more.
However, whether the governor gets another term may not depend entirely on his performance or acceptance by the Imo electorates. This is if the performance of INEC in the 2023 national election is anything to consider.
The electoral body fractured the hopes of Nigerians of the ability to choose their own leaders. INEC under Prof Mahmood Yakubu took the country many years backwards. By this shameful outing, Prof Yakubu and his co-travellers may have established a strong foundation for electoral malpractice under the BIVAS/IREV election management system.
This is exactly why the Imo state gubernatorial election and others coming after it are at the risk of certain manipulation. This is as long as the current INEC leadership remains unchanged. This gives President Tinubu room to swear the election to favour any candidate of his chosen if he opts to do so.
So, will this president’s potential support tilt in favour of Governor Uzodinma’s Re-Election?
Amidst the backdrop of complex alliances and shifting loyalties, the question of whether President Tinubu will throw his weight behind Governor Hope Uzodinma’s re-election bid has become the focal point. You may ask, does the intricate web of Southeast politics suggest the likelihood of this happening?
Considering the governor’s alliances during the last APC primaries, as well as his body language during the presidential election, does Hope Uzodinma have President Tinubu’s confidence? These and more are not exactly clear right now.
There is also the issue of whether party politics will favour Uzodinma. It is difficult to reach any conclusion on that with certainty at the moment. This is especially considering the political intrigues surrounding the recent ministerial nominees’ screening exercise that saw former governor Wike prioritised over El-Rufai.
What has emerged from the National Assembly suggests that Tinubu, an astute politician may strategically re-aligning shifting allegiances to build his own power base.
Dissecting the potential contenders, including figures like Rochas Okorocha, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, Major General Lincoln Ogunewe, and Senator Athan Achonu, the consideration might well go beyond their party labels.
There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s consideration of Governor Hope Uzodinma’s re-election bid will be a precarious balancing act. Uzodinma’s tenure has been marked by both some accomplishments and challenges. But his critics will be quick to reflect on the many deaths of innocent people and acts of criminalities that Imo State has witnessed under his watch.
Those who think Hope Uzodinma should not be given another chance to govern the state are not in short supply. There are even many more who think the governor’s current term is illegitimate. This is considering the way and manner he was “smuggled into office” after loosing massively in the election.
So, even as a party man President Tinubu may consider the governor a liability than asset going into the gubernatorial election. All this notwithstanding, what could still tilt the scales in his favor is the elusive endorsement from President Tinunu if it does happen.
Analysts argue that President Tinubu’s support could significantly bolster Uzodinma’s re-election campaign, providing him with a powerful political machine, irrespective of the question of legitimacy.
Yet, the path to this endorsement is riddled with complexities, ranging from Uzodinma’s past alignment and his governance track record and other political calculations within the southeast.
The role of the enigmatic Rochas Okorocha in shaping the Imo political landscape in 2023.
Owelle Rochas Okorocha is a formidable political figure and former governor of Imo State. Okorocha’s intricate dance through the political spectrum has garnered both admiration and controversy. As Governor Uzodinma vies for re-election, Okorocha’s role in shaping the political landscape becomes an enigmatic puzzle that will intrigue both observers and insiders. It will also give Uzodinma course to worry.
Okorocha lost the APC presidential ticket to President Tinubu, but it is hard to say if he was actually a serious contender for the ticket. There is also no indication that he actually seriously worked against the interest of Tinubu during the APC primaries.
Rochas Okorocha was unable to return to the senate in the last election. However, this was not owing to his inability to have won the senatorial election, but because he was denied the APC ticket. Hope Uzodinma was instrumental to this, apparently to clip his wings.
Did he really succeed? That is doubtful. The former senator, who represented Imo West senatorial district at the 9th Nigerian Senate, has by no means lost his popularity in the state, even more than 4 years after leaving office as the governor.
Okorocha’s affiliations, realignments, and manoeuvrings are seen as crucial determinants in the southeast’s political equation, but Imo State in particular. His influence and network could sway the political tides in favour of or against Uzodinma’s re-election bid.
The dynamics between these two figures adds a layer of complexity to an already intricate narrative. President Tinubu understands this and will factor it in his decision on whether to support Uzodinma.
However, there are also other contenders. the Imo state political landscape for 2023 is far from a binary equation. Beyond Uzodinma and Okorocha, an array of political actors has entered the arena, each with their own aspirations and constituencies. Okorocha is not himself going to be on the ballot, but he is an interested party.
Other candidates include, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, a significant presence in Imo East, Major General Lincoln Ogunewe (Rtd.) of the Labour Party, and Senator Athan Achonu representing Imo North. These three are considered the biggest challengers to Uzodinma and they each contribute to the multi-dimensional nature of the coming gubernatorial election.
Unravelling the presidential endorsement quandary. The question of President Tinubu’s potential endorsement remains the fulcrum upon which Governor Uzodinma’s second term aspiration teeters.
As the nation speculates about the president’s possible stance, other political figures in the state are strategically positioning themselves to align with this potential decision. The implications of such an endorsement resonate beyond individual ambitions, affecting the dynamics of the entire southeast political ecosystem.
This is exactly why many currently think that President Tinubu may dump Governor Uzodinma. They think Tinubu would see Uzodinma as a liability who cannot give him a solid base in the southeast. They think the president will prefer to work with another political structure who will help him consolidate his own ambition in the region generally.
As everything ahead remains an unpredictable odyssey, the enigmatic role of figures like Rochas Okorocha, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, Major General Lincoln Ogunewe, and Senator Athan Achonu, promises to be a wild card in President Tinubu’s eventual decision. They cannot be quickly dismissed, even though they are each in different political party, for now.
